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Wyrdness said:
Soundwave said:

Super NES had a pretty strong first six months I would say. 

Super Mario World, Pilotwings, F-Zero, Sim City, Super Castlevania IV, Final Fight, Super Ghouls N' Ghosts, Final Fantasy II, Contra III. All of those games were exclusive and made specifically for the SNES too ... not bad. Of course it helps when you can release a year after the Japanese Super Famicom. 

N64 and GameCube had critical droughts at early points in their product cycle though, that definitely hurt them badly. I think droughts early in a system's infancy can cause more lasting damage. 

Like Nintendo didn't release a whole lot for the SNES in 1993 (Star Fox and basically Super Mario All-Stars ... a repackaging of older games) but it didn't really matter as much because 3rd parties would pick up the slack. 

But BOTW and Mario Kart 8 helped the Switch have a smooth first 6 months on the market. Even Splatoon 2 shares a ton of content with Splatoon on Wii U, without that probably that game doesn't make that release window. The Switch would have had a poor first 6 months on market without those games, the launch window was basically carried by Zelda + Mario Kart + Splatoon. 

A year after the Japanese release doesn't make it the first six months though it puts those games firmly in the second year so this does nothing in refuting the point and only highlights how staggered releases may help some regions. Early droughts are not a problem if you can prevent them being a constant later on, PS1 for instance had early droughts before third parties switched over and even PS3. Only thing Splatoon 2 shares with the original are weapons the game itself had different maps, new modes, single player etc...

Splatoon has 14 new stages and 9 old stages from the 1st game, so a huge chunk of its content is taken from the first game, otherwise there's probably no chance that game makes it out that early in the Switch product cycle. 

Nintendo's buyer base seems very finicky on launch windows for whatever reason. Like you would think maybe people would say "well, y'know we know we're not getting these Nintendo IP on other systems so we'll give you the benefit of the doubt and just buy the system now" ... but Nintendo seems to get no benefit of the doubt from its fanbase for whatever reason. 

They have to prove themselves again every time with a new system from day 1, which is pretty hard to do. 

Sony has had drought periods, honestly even the PS2 launch wasn't that great (especially the Japanese one), but their buyer base just seems to buy it no matter what. PS3 was the only rough stretch they had with a home console because the system was absurdly expensive for its time. PS5 barely has any exclusives worth owning and they pretty much instantly sell out anywhere but Japan it seems like. 

The 3rd party thing probably makes a big difference, Sony fans are happy if they get their yearly Madden, FIFA, Call of Duty, NBA2K ... those are the main IP, Nintendo doesn't get that kind of help from 3rd parties in terms of system seller content so they have to bring their big guns. 

If I was Nintendo at this point I'd just save new Zelda games for launch windows, Nintendo fans seem stubborn about buying a new system until you show them a new Zelda, then they just open up the wallet like it's no problem.