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Shatts on 14 November 2022
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yo33331 said:
trunkswd said:

Most of the data we have for Switch had it flat or down only a small amount year-on-year. 

The adjustments that I am seeing in last year and particularly in this year and not so small. Going back 2021 year was originally estimated as 25.2M and now is 24.7M. This is 500k down. Which is not also big difference but it's something. However this year there were adjustments almost every two weeks or so and every time I remember switch is adjusted down. And every time it is doing around 300k weekly for example 1 month down the line when I check it is 250 or 270k not the originally 300k. There was week that was close to 450k. Now the same week is 390k.

This is not me saying anything about the work you are doing, or the estimates, don't take me wrong here. The site is pretty accurate and estimates are almost always just on point with negligible differences.

I am just saying that by history, I am doubling down that Switch will just get adjusted down (as always) and this specific week (as probably other to follow) will be adjusted down to between 350 and 380k. It may happen 2 weeks from now, month from now, or at the quorter report. Or most likely gradually. 2 weeks from now will get adjusted down by 20k, then 20-30k more and then 1 more till it get's to finally total of the range I just gave. (after maybe the quorter report in early february).

I just say this because some people look and remember every week sales level and after some time they remain dissapointed when they see the final lower than expected numbers. And I just explain why it is that way, and why they may remember all summer long switch weeks around 300k each, and when you go now and see almost all of the weeks are under 300k and most of them going in the 240-260/270k range.

Anyway if I have to bet about let's say the PS5, I think (based on history by now) it will be adjusted up.

Actually from what I know, VGchartz estimate was lower than the actual data comparing it to the recent quarterly report we had. We had it at 113.49 million Switches sold by end of September, but the actual number was 114.33 million. So instead of adjusting down, it should be adjusted up. In general, every console might have to be adjusted slightly up.