Famitsu Sales: Week 44, 2022 (Oct 24 - Oct 30)

[Doctor_MG]

yo33331 said:

It's obvious. Switch begins to lose steam. It's normal it is in it's 6th year. It's not only for the week and for japan. See the whole year since march or april. Switch has been constantly down. It has mere 2-3 exclusions where it received some bumps for a week or two but only that. In this point in time in it's life Switch can't receive big boost with software titles. ( I mean big, like 2019, 2020 or 2021 ones, where Switch's boost to continue through couple of weeks selling more than the norm before that ). It has been constantly down since the spring and even in japan most of the weeks this year are double digits, and when there is nothing interesting for it falls to levels such as ~40, 50 or 60k. The down ratio % will also be going up (it was 30% in some point in the year, then drop to ~20% and now is going up again and will probably finish close to 30% when everything is said and done).
Now even lower .. So low even I wasn't expecting. Of course holiday period is coming in the next weeks till end of the year and it is normal that Switch will get boost both worldwide and in japan. However that boost won't be near 2021 levels, and just like many other consoles every next year and holiday in that matter will be lower and lower.
Last year we had weekly numbers in the holiday period (november and december) most of them doing between 1 and 1.1M. This year they will probably be between 800k and 1M at best. For japan I expect weekly numbers between 100 and 150k. Of course there may be some other fluke week where it reaches maybe 200k just to check it out (since every single holiday till now there were weeks with 200k+ sales) but majority of them will be between 100k and ~ 150k. Something like that. Next year the drop will be even bigger. Both worldwide and japan.

I really think you're reading into this wrong. These numbers are for the week before the Pokemon themed Switch comes out in Japan. In addition, this is the lowest week Switch has had this year, with most weeks being almost double this number or more. It's much more likely that this sudden drop is due to people waiting for the new Switch themed model than it is a prediction for the future. 

Also, 800k is way too low for the holiday. 1.1M is reasonable, but 800k means Switch sells no more than 100k on average from here until the end of the year. That's not happening. Heck, it'll probably hit over 100k next week and there will definitely be at least one week they almost hit 200k. So you're pretty much saying that after next week there will be multiple weeks with only 50k units sold which I just can't see.