Will the XBSX beat the XB1 sales, and how many units it will sell?

[Bofferbrauer2]

Chicho said:

eva01beserk said:

This takes me back at all the excuses made back in the 8th gen war. There was a new excuse every year.

I'm not invested on the Series X|S and don't need to make any excuses. I just see the 50 or 60 million as unrealistic and i showed the numbers and the trends of the one and 360 compared to the X|S. The lead of the one over 360 never got as high as the X|S over the 360 and it started to decrease hard after month 26. That is there on the charts and is not an excuse.

Same for me. I'm not invested at all into Xbox (never owned any of them and don't plan in buying one). Just a quick look at the sales charts and remembering that the XBO never consistently sold above 100k weekly or even just anywhere near that while the XS does shows that the XS should have much better sales in the end than the XBO had unless sales get cut short for whatever reason - hence why I asked what reason they could thing of that could cut the console short.

Kyuu said:

Bofferbrauer2 said:

3 years and 5 months, as you can see here. The problem is that it's not comparable.

360 sold very poorly early in it's career. Beating those numbers were not a high bar to beat. And yet, the XBO only managed to do so with massive promotions during the holiday season, because outside of it the 360 generally sold better. This also resulted in the console being pretty frontloaded.

Neither is the case with the XS. It doesn't need big promotions to sell, and it doesn't just sell during the holiday period, but throughout the year.

"Doesn't need big promotions to sell."

Xbox Series S w/ free controller will be $250 at Target this Thursday https://t.co/TNJEED5liH pic.twitter.com/0tc1vX5hyc

— Wario64 (@Wario64) October 4, 2022

I'm pretty sure VGC and Famitsu are both overtracking Xbox, as opposed to Ampere Analysis and MediaCreate undertracking it. The truth is likely somewhere in the middle.

Yeah, Microsoft are doing some promotions, so? If you look at the 360 vs XBO chart above, you can clearly see that the XBO only managed to build up any lead during the holiday season, while subsequently loosing over the course of the rest of the year. The XBO had a baseline that's much lower than the XS has. But more on that later, let's compare baselines first.

I'm taking the month of May as baseline since it's the one where the console sells the least. This is so far true for both the XBO and the XS.

XBO's best year had just 268k sales in May, while the other years it was hovering between 230k and 260k. This means weekly sales in May have been consistently under 70k, with dips down to under 60k.

XS easily beats this, with 393k last year and 482k this year. It is also the only month this year where the XS didn't sell at least 500k.

In fact, the 393k from last year is already a pretty high bar for the XBO, as at no point in it's life in the months of January, April, May and July XBO even got close to that number and just managed to beat it once in August, and XBO only managed twice to get above 500k monthly sales (and even then just barely so, with 501k in June 2015 and 507k in March 2018) in any month between January and August.

So even if the console would be overtracked, it would need to be very massively so just to give the XBO a fighting chance. XBO only sold during the holidays because it got massive promotions during that time, otherwise it wouldn't have sold at all. The XS meanwhile has a much higher baseline and doesn't need to rely on the holidays to sell, but that doesn't mean that they can't do promotions to further push the consoles.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 06 October 2022