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Norion on 23 September 2022
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Soundwave said:
Norion said:

That's not the same thing as the company itself talking about it. Nintendo has said nothing about the Switch's successor yet when they outright gave the Switch's release month nearly a full year in advance and announced the 3DS almost a full year in advance so based on historical precedence the successor can't release that soon without an announcement unless they do things differently this time. They may choose to do so but I see it as unlikely until they break away from it for the first time. And hardware announcements well in advance aren't really dwindling for consoles since both the PS5 and Xbox Series were announced in 2019. Maybe doing it differently would work better but it is something that's being followed in that space still.

Historical precedent isn't some gospel law, it changes every generation in numerous ways. 

You're two years into the PS5 product cycle and it has no meaningful exclusives. Same with XBox Series S/X. What's the historical precedent for that? There is none. 

Historical precedent says Nintendo always makes a separate home console and portable ... until they didn't (and this point was hotly debated for a long time here with lots of people being in denial over a hybrid system not being possible because Nintendo had never done it before). 

Historical precedent says the N64, GameCube, Wii, Wii U and other systems all have gameplay demos and games announced 8-12 months in advance of launch. The Switch did not. We didn't know anything about any games and we didn't get any game demos until 4 1/2 months prior to launch. 

The window from product reveal to launch is shrinking for all these systems, it used to be much larger. Shit I remember the fucking N64 (Project: Reality) being "announced" in August 1993 ... the SNES was only 2 years old in the US at that time, lol. Imagine Nintendo announcing Switch 2 in 2019. 

Things change all the time, there is no generation where Nintendo has exactly followed the historical precedent from the previous one, every system is different. 

Even if Switch 2 is a 2024 or 2025 product, I don't think you're getting an announcement 12+ months in advance ... it serves Nintendo of today no purpose and would only damage hardware sales for no good reason. 

Of course it's not gospel, I've said multiple times they may choose to do things differently including in the message you replied to so I don't know why you're replying in a way like I'm saying there's no chance things will be different next time. It is possible the Switch's successor is announced only 4-5 months before launch but it's never been even close to that short before so assuming a 2024 launch I think it's more likely to get an announcement in 2023 than 2024 since I see nothing that indicates they're gonna make a significant change.