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Norion on 23 September 2022
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Soundwave said:
Norion said:

4-5 months is enough time yeah but something critical you're ignoring with your examples is them being talked about in advance. Both the Switch and PS5 were first talked about well in advance before the full on reveal a few months before launch and the OLED is a hardware revision which are treated differently. Nintendo has said nothing about a Switch successor yet which means if they follow historical precedence that it's not launching soon. Now of course they may not follow that but I don't think it's something one should outright expect especially since when the successor is just a few months away rumours about it will be everywhere.

They were talked about, sure, just like we're talking about Switch 2/Super Switch whatever right now and getting leaks on the processor apparently. 

There was virtually no concrete information given by Nintendo on the NX other than it was a dedicated game system and they only even said that much to assure stockholders that they weren't abandoning game hardware at a press event where they first announced they would be making smartphone games. After that there was pretty much no actual information about the system from Nintendo, certainly nothing to build hype or excitement. 

So Switch was basically 4 1/2 months from knowing basically nothing confirmed about the system (other than some leaks not provided by Nintendo, but you can say the same thing about Super Switch/Switch 2 right now) to being available to play in your home. 

I mean do you logically think even think they would say "hey yeah Switch 2 is coming" right now anyway? That would be monumentally stupid, why would you hurt your own Switch holiday sales for no reason? Even if it's a 2024 or 2025 product it wouldn't make a lot of sense to undercut existing Switch sales for no reason especially when Nintendo has no second hardware line anymore. 

This is why 1+ year hardware announcements I think are pretty much dwindling (unless your present hardware is selling below expectation), it's a stupid thing to do basically. To be honest from leaks we may know more about Switch 2 at this point than was known about the OG Switch at this point ... if the Tegra 239 is indeed the processor, then we know pretty much the performance of the Switch 2 roughly already, we have the number of CUDA cores, CPU cores, and number of SM units and even hardware features like DLSS and raytracing. 

Eurogamer leaked the hybrid NX concept 7 months prior to launch but no specifics on the actual chipset being used. We're currently 8 months out from May 2023, if they are going for that date (again I'm not saying for sure they are, but just if that is a hypothetical window), we probably know more about Switch 2 right now than we did about Switch 1. I think the NX using a Tegra X1 leaked a bit afterwards, so we know about the same roughly about both systems. 

That's not the same thing as the company itself talking about it. Nintendo has said nothing about the Switch's successor yet when they outright gave the Switch's release month nearly a full year in advance and announced the 3DS almost a full year in advance so based on historical precedence the successor can't release that soon without an announcement unless they do things differently this time. They may choose to do so but I see it as unlikely until they break away from it for the first time. And hardware announcements well in advance aren't really dwindling for consoles since both the PS5 and Xbox Series were announced in 2019. Maybe doing it differently would work better but it is something that's being followed in that space still.