archbrix said:
I don't think these kinds of leaks represent the same kind of exposure that Norion and Rol have mentioned though. We knew that Nintendo's new system was in the works with a codename and all in early 2015. Nintendo has specifically said that it is in no hurry to replace Switch with a successor. Sales evidence supports this too; does it really make sense for Nintendo to come out with Switch's successor - even as a transition system - as early as next year when so many people are just buying their Switch systems for the first time? That's to say nothing of a chip shortage possibility. If we do get new hardware next year, it is likely that it will just be a more capable Switch that is clearly in the specs realm of a pro model as opposed to Switch 2. Launching with ZTotK, I could see that maybe happening to extend the Switch's life even further until a late 2025 Switch 2 release. What you propose as a transition into Switch 2 is a possibility, as this translation from Nintendo even supports the possibility of that idea: "The question of whether we will be able to just as smoothly transition from the Nintendo Switch to the next generation of hardware is a major concern for us. Based on our experiences with the Wii, Nintendo DS, and other hardware, it is very clear that one of the major obstacles is how to easily transition from one hardware to the next. To help alleviate this risk, we’re focusing on building long-term relationships with our customers. While we will continue launching new software on the Nintendo Switch, we will also provide services that also use Nintendo Accounts and other IP outside of gaming software. We intend for this to help build a lasting impact with our customers." While I could see something like this happening where you basically have a cross-gen situation for the first year and a half or so of Switch 2's life, it just doesn't make sense to do that in 2023 coming off of a 20m+ fiscal year. I'd still say 2024 for this scenario at the earliest. |
Either way I don't think you're going to get a Switch 2 announcement like a 1 year in advance no matter what the release date is.
Lets say your scenario is correct and 2024 is the release date, they're not going to announce in 2023 a Switch 2 is coming 12 months ahead of launch because why would you slow Switch sales for holiday 2023 in particular for no real good reason?
The NX was not revealed in 2015 to get hardcore internet gamers excited, they had to reveal something at that time because they were making the announcement of going into smartphone games and had to reassure stockholders that they weren't abandoning traditional hardware. NX was actually a secondary announcement at that event ... the press conference where NX was announced was first and foremost to announce their entry into smartphone gaming.
Hardware transitions are just different now too. Software takes too long to make and is too expensive to look past 100+ million users, even for Sony, they can't ignore the PS4's userbase and here we are in 2022, the PS5 is almost 2 years old and all major PS5 titles, even Sony's own in house games like their big ticket holiday 2022 title, God of War Ragnarok is PS4/PS5. From the GTAVI leak it looks like GTAVI might even be a PS4 game, lol.
The days of one new hardware coming to market and completely cutting off the previous gen to start from 0 I think is over. It doesn't make any financial sense to do that anymore unless your previous console was a flop. The industry has changed.
But I do think something may be imminent, the types of hardware leaks we're getting here where we basically may know everything about the Switch 2 hardware chipset is usually something that only happens maybe 7-8 months prior to a product launch (NX/Switch was the same, 7 months prior to launch we got the Eurogamer leak that stated the hybrid concept and a few weeks later the Tegra X1 was stated to be in the dev kits). To know a system's hardware like 2-3 years before launch ... is really unprecedented.
Last edited by Soundwave - on 23 September 2022
