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archbrix on 30 August 2022
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yo33331 said:
archbrix said:

What were your predictions for Switch sales in 2023?  Because those sales numbers would likely account for a minimum 17m year (same thing I predicted in the Switch Sales thread):

Let's say Switch averages 220,000 a week for the first three quarters.  With 13 weeks a quarter that makes about 8.5m by October.  Then factor in Nintendo's 10m+ for the final quarter (let's go low and say 8.5m for 2023 holiday) for a total of at least 17m.  That will be the highest 7th fiscal year for a system ever, surpassing PS2's 14.20m and dwarfing DS' 5.10m fiscal years aligned.

My predictions for 2023 for the switch (calendar year) were anywhere between 12 and 16M range. (depending on whether there will be announcement for new model/console or price cut, or both.)

As for my post, I am not saying that they will be little under 250k for the whole year. I expect to start selling 250k weekly and under it in january/february. But by the summer or september I expect it can hit low numbers around 200K weekly. Also I don't think that the holiday for 2023 calendar year will be so strong - 8.5M.

With seeing the few last holidays, how they degrade holiday after holiday I expect around 8M this year for the holiday period and for the next (depends on what happens of course - price cut/ new model or new consoles announcement) I expect the holiday to be weaker than this (well if they throw pricecut or new models then it may again be 8 to 10M but I doubt that will happen).

As for surpassing numbers you don't need to worry about the year's number for the PS2 but it's long legs. Also the DS fiscal year that is corresponding with the 2023 or should I say calendar year (because I am not sure for the exact number of the FY) was 9M so yeah Switch will surpass it but not by a huge margin. Something like 3-4-5M. Again I doubt that Nintendo will release new model (that will be surprising such as Pro model - otherwise there wouldn't be big impact on sales) or will make price cut. More likely they can announce the next console which will impact sales of the Switch. But we will wait and see.

I don't think anything below 15m for Switch sales next year is realistic but I believe it will be another pretty big year for the system as far as releases.  I could see 15m-16m low end.

But no, the DS fell hard from 17.52m to 5.1m the following year.  Switch will be going from 21m (projected) to 15m minimum, fiscal years aligned.