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Kyuu said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

There is basically no chance the PS5 will outsell the X|S in the US.  It's really more of a question of "how much".  Will XBox win by a little or a lot?

I've made my points... we'll wait and see. I can see myself betting on Xbox IF (a fat "if") MS keep CoD games away from Playstation, which likely isn't gonna happen coz they'd rather access PS5's install base to maximize software sales (honestly, I wouldn't even rule out Bethesda games coming to PS5 when MS don't get the desired results). Supporting PS5 could also make it easier for them to go on with their acquisition business without as much hassle from regulators. Pure guesses though.

You argue that PS5 is close to meeting demand by pointing to reduced scalped prices and yet, curiously, you don't use the same argument against Series X. Explain why PS5 is selling out faster despite the much higher quantities and no PS5DE push. Explain why it's still priced higher everywhere nearly 19 months after launch. Why were you quick to mention signs of declining demand for PS5 and not Series X? The rarer console is in less demand and is being sold cheaper, how come this doesn't catch your attention? Mark my words: your PS5 predictions are in jeopardy!

I do NOT rule out Xbox Series outselling PS5 in the US even without CoD exclusivity, but your certainty cracks me up man. Things should be a lot more fun during this half of the year, so grab you popcorn and enjoy the show!

The biggest factor, assuming no major changes as the gen goes along, which very well could happen, are the casual gamers.

Casuals don't tend to jump on board near as early as the hardcore gamer. While some casuals have got in early and bought an XB Series X or S due to the improved XB ecosystem, others did simply because it was much easier to get their hands on an XB vs a PS5.

Once there are PS5's fairly available, to widely available on store shelves, PS5 is going to gain more and more ground everywhere, and once PS5 starts to take off, more and more casuals will jump on that bandwagon as they always do.

I don't see there being the same type of gap as last gen for either, but XB has it's biggest battles still ahead.