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yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

The last time I pointed this out it was in global sales, this week I simply noticed and pointed out the percentage to which it was tracking in Japan as of today's numbers. It was an update.

I actually do have some memory problems, so if I repeat myself it's not intentional.

As for your claim the 6th year will finish behind its third, are you referring to in Japan, globally, or both? Cos as far as Japan goes, the subject of this thread, it is currently in the lead by nearly 800k (2.41 million vs 1.66 million) and barring some new factor we don't know about yet, it seems unlikely it will lose all of that in the next 5 months that include both Splatoon 3 and Pokémon Scarlet/Violet.

About the repeating, I notice you are writing it down around every second week or so, on the weekly threads. There is just no need. This is valid and will be valid till september and everyone is seeing it and knows it. It's in that way since the beginning of the year. The holidays is where it will be interesting to watch.

I am saying that in the end it's 6th year won't be bigger, not that it will be weaker than it's 3rd. They will be almost equal (1M or so difference don't really make the one better than the other cuz the difference would be too small.) They will be about equal. And I am talking worldwide. In Japan it will even probably be weaker, cuz 2019 was 4.5M. This year the pace it's going till now with the decline it has and with how strong 2019 become in september onwards I expect Switch to make 4M. At the very best it could reach 4.5M but even then it's 6th year won't be better than it's 3rd. They will be equal. The software at this point in Switch life won't really make difference. If you put this 800k lead with the 2019 total you are telling me that this year will finish almost equal to last year 5.5M ? not gonna happen. It will be signifantly lower than that, as it is now. Why aren't you talking about the 800k deficit it has to 2021 ? Why are you adding those 800k to 2019 numbers but not taking out those 800k from 2021 numbers ? Why only taking the bright side but not the other one ? With how Switch has declined and how the switch got way stronger in 2019 it's way more likely it will finish around 2019 numbers or even lower in the end, than it is to finish close to 2021 numbers.

And the one Splatoon or pokemon won't make the difference. The OLED model last year when Switch had smaller install base didn't make significant boost and now the splatoon or pokemon will ? really ? I doubt it. The best they can do will be to boost 1 or 2 weeks and that's it. But even this I am not sure of cuz 110M is serious number and it's in the saturation point where software can't make a lot of difference for the console sales.

I give you an example. 2021 was also ahead of 2020 WW sales. (and even japan) But at halfpoint 2020 took the lead and made more than 3M more sales in the end. The 2021 lead for little over half a year which isn't small. The same is now happening with 2019 vs 2022. Both worldwide and japan. Only that in japan the possibility of 2019 beating 2022 is bigger. Worldwide as I said will probably be equal or with insignificant difference.

4m for Switch in Japan for 2022?

It's more than halfway there already, and the holiday season, which is typically the best time of year for sales, is yet to come. Even if it saw no holiday boost at all, and just kept selling at the rate it has so far, it would come close to 4m already.

Granted, anything can happen, they could for example announce a successor before the end of the year and slow sales that way, but barring that, 4m for the year when it's at 2.4 million in mid July seems a bit of a low ball.