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RolStoppable said:
Chrkeller said:

I stand by my previous assessment. Switch is third all time. I do not see it catching the DS and ps2.

This assumes that Nintendo won't allow Switch to run the natural course of a console life and instead kills it prematurely.

The sales trajectory of Switch doesn't necessitate a successor before or during the fiscal year that ends March 2025, so the most logical timing would be a holiday launch in 2025. That's enough time to reach and surpass 160m in lifetime sales.

If Nintendo decides to do a mid-gen upgrade of the hardware, then 160m will be a piece of cake because the launch date of a successor will be pushed back further.

Of the above three options, the middle one is the most probable one. Nintendo is wary of the inevitable transition period between Switch and its successor, so it would be preposterous if they didn't allow Switch and its successor to run side by side for a while akin the 3DS to Switch transition. Likewise, a successful transition necessitates high profile first party software during year 1 of the successor and given what Switch is still getting right now, a 2024 launch of a successor would most likely feel rushed. A 2023 launch would be insane anyway.

Time will tell.  You might be right, you might be wrong.  It will be interesting to see what Nintendo does.

Personally I would be very surprised if a Switch 2 doesn't happen in 2023/2024.