The Last of Us Part II sold through more than 4m copies during its first weekend. Lifetime sales expectations for the PS4 version alone?

[DonFerrari]

RolStoppable said:

DonFerrari said:

From your table LTD <10M = 10.22+4+5.96+6.56 = 26.74 didn't even think it would reach 10M

Now on the 10-12M (it will reach that for sure even without PS5 version) we would have 48.8% of people thinking it wouldn`t cross 12M.

So how majority though it would reach 10M in a shorter time than it did?

Approximately 51% of the votes were too high compared to 26.74% which were too low, so the conclusion is that the game was overestimated. The game will not cross 12m with its now known sales trajectory, so of course all votes above that threshold were made with the expectation that the 10m milestone would be reached sooner than it actually happened.

If a remastered PS5 version had launched as quickly as it happened for the first game (originally released in mid-2013 for the PS3, remastered PS4 version released in mid-2014), then the second game's sales on its original platform would have been even lower than they are right now. From reading through this thread I got the impression that most people assumed that a PS5 remaster would launch before the end of 2021, so similar to how things played out for the first game. Then there are a few posts in here which explicitly state that 10m would be reached by the end of 2020.

You know the name of what you are doing is reaching right?