The Last of Us Part II sold through more than 4m copies during its first weekend. Lifetime sales expectations for the PS4 version alone?

The Last of Us Part II sold through more than 4m copies during its first weekend.
Lifetime sales expectations for the PS4 version alone?

• Less than 7 million: 120
• 7.0 - 7.9 million: 47
• 8.0 - 8.9 million: 70
• 9.0 - 9.9 million: 77
• 10.0 - 11.9 million: 259
• 12.0 - 13.9 million: 169
• 14.0 - 15.9 million: 177
• 16.0 - 17.9 million: 91
• 18.0 - 20.0 million: 61
• More than 20 million: 103
• Total: 1,174

[DonFerrari]

RolStoppable said:

The Last of Us Part II (PS4) hit the 10m milestone sometime during spring 2022.

https://www.vgchartz.com/article/453952/the-last-of-us-part-ii-sales-top-10-million-units/

Later than expected by most people, plus there's still no announcement of a PS5 nor PC release, so the PS4 version had as much time for itself as one could hope for. There shouldn't be an issue with calling it now: The 10.0 - 11.9 million option is the correct one.

Here are the poll results at the time of writing:

The Last of Us Part II sold through more than 4m copies during its first weekend. Lifetime sales expectations for the PS4 version alone?
Less than 7 million	120	10.22%
7.0 - 7.9 million	47	4.00%
8.0 - 8.9 million	70	5.96%
9.0 - 9.9 million	77	6.56%
10.0 - 11.9 million	259	22.06%
12.0 - 13.9 million	169	14.40%
14.0 - 15.9 million	177	15.08%
16.0 - 17.9 million	91	7.75%
18.0 - 20.0 million	61	5.20%
More than 20 million	103	8.77%
Total:	1,174

From your table LTD <10M = 10.22+4+5.96+6.56 = 26.74 didn't even think it would reach 10M

Now on the 10-12M (it will reach that for sure even without PS5 version) we would have 48.8% of people thinking it wouldn`t cross 12M.

So how majority though it would reach 10M in a shorter time than it did?