The_Liquid_Laser said:
You are right. I expect demand to be met in the US first. However, the US is also by far the biggest market. Once demand is met in the US, it actually won't be too hard to divert resources to meet demands in other markets like Spain. It will take several months of time though. Forbidden West and GT7 are not PS5 exclusives. You can also get them on the PS4, which has an install base of around 117m. Those 117m people do not have much of a compelling reason to buy a PS5. Demon's Souls is not really an exclusive either, but there are enough people who didn't play the PS3 version that it probably helps to sell the PS5. For PS5 alone, I can confidently say it will sell under 80m lifetime. I will probably revise that number downward soon though, because 80m seems too high at this point. Don't be surprised if I start giving a number less than 80m in the near future. |
1. It is the largest single market for sure but was responsible for just about a third of the lifetime sales of the PS2, PS3 and PS4 with Europe taking up the largest portion for all three so it being really far from being met in Europe makes it far from being met overall by itself considering how well PS consoles sell there. There have been weeks this year where the PS5 has sold over 200k when there's been a stock boost and it would easily be selling over 200k normally if there was enough stock available thanks to demand in Europe being met.
2. The install base is not that high. The PS4's successor having been out for a while now combined with factors like people buying multiple PS4's means it's a lot lower and declining every day at this point. And the PS4 versions of games like Forbidden West and GT7 selling way less than the PS5 versions shows that most people don't wanna play cross-gen games on last gen consoles and that despite big games like that being cross-gen there's a lot of people still willing to buy a new console to play them on.
3. What yearly sales are you expecting for the PS5? Cause it should be at least somewhat close to 30m by the end of this year so the average per year for 2023-2027 would have to be under 10m for it to not reach 80m lifetime and with demand clearly not being met right now combined with big exclusives coming next year means there's no reason for it to consistently sell under 10m the next few years unless the stock issue gets even worse and somehow stays that bad for years.
Last edited by Norion - on 08 June 2022
