When will the Switch successor launch ?

[Jumpin]

Spring 2023 is my vote. I think this date is most likely based on Nintendo’s comments.

• Consoles are planned years in advance, as Furukawa has stated, not developed and saved for when it seems like a good time to launch. It makes little sense for developers to create software intended to launch the console only to sit on it, as that creates huge gaps in their schedules.
• Furukawa announced in January 2020 was the midway point of the Switch’s lifecycle which indicates they were looking at a late 2022 release date back then. Although, he said similar comments through 2020 and 2021. This doesn’t necessarily mean anything for Switch 2 since consoles can exist at the same time - for example: PS2 had a 10 year lifecycle, the last 3-4 years were alongside PS3.
• Furukawa also said they were breaking tradition. This could mean multiple things, but I think he means Switch 1 and 2 will run in parallel for some time rather than Nintendo’s traditional slash and burn the previous generation to make way for the new one. Why? Nintendo ran a little experiment with 3DS, seeing what would happen if they supported the 3DS during the Switch; sales went up year over year.
• Furukawa said that Switch 2 would expand the ecosystem they built with the Switch. This indicates that rather than starting from scratch on the next platform, there will be continuity. This is how it works on most other platforms: iOS, MacOS, Windows, etc… Another supporting point is Nintendo is not likely using a drastically different hardware or interface for the next generation Switch given their deal with Nvidia.
• The odd Breath of the Wild 2 delay to “Spring 2023” is a smoking gun. Zelda, particularly Breath of the Wild, is Nintendo’s flagship franchise. It is the ideal game to launch Switch 2 with. The game has been in development a very long time and is unlikely to have had the same developmental hurdles of Breath of the Wild 1 based on what we know. Even with Corona, it shouldn’t have this extensive a decade cycle. What is the reason? Simply polishing it up isn’t a great reason to miss the holiday season since polish can be applied after launch with updates (like with the first game). A Switch 2 release time would be a reason.
• When asked if Switch 2 was launching this 2023 fiscal year, rather than the usual unambiguous “no” Furukawa dropped the classic “No comment” line. For those unfamiliar with the tech industry from at least the 1980s to early 2000s “no comment” translates to “Probably, but we’re not ready to make an announcement on this yet.”

So, based on their comments, I think a Spring 2023 release seems most likely, Summer 2023 (maybe late winter in case Nintendo decides a little earlier in March or something) second most likely, and so on. And there are some other things that can be gleaned from the info. Switch 1 won’t be killed off before as has been Nintendo’s general (bad) strategy before this time. Switch 1 will expand the lower tier while Switch 2 will take the upper tier and play all Switch 1 games - perhaps with higher settings for those devs who wish to update: many games on Switch already have those capabilities given they were ported from other platforms with multiple tiers (both hardware and OS).