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For me I see it very unlikely the PS5 will sell less than 8m

Even if it experienced the same decline PS4 experienced, it would look something like this PS3 10.4m > PS4 9.5m > PS5 8m

The only thing stopping it from currently eclipsing PS4 sales at the same point in its life is the shortages and where that is concerned its actually down globablly way more than it is in Japan, meaning we shouldn't expect Japan to be hit worst by shortages going forward compared to other regions. Since sony is expecting a 40% increase in production this fiscal year I'm not expecting Japan to be left out of those increased shipments. There will of course be some dreadful weeks, but that is inconsequential in the bigger context.

Beyond that, I thought everyone had the belief that Japanese demand was being prepped up by international scalpers? Just another reason why it extremely unlikely retail figures for Japan will sit below 8m when all is said and done. Demand in surrouinding countries will continue to impact Japanese sales of hardware.