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Barozi on 23 April 2022
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forest-spirit said:
SecondWar said:

Also ‘if they join Nato’. They do realise the response if they attack Sweden and Finland for joining Nato, right?

I don't know about Finland but from what I've read Sweden won't have any guarantees from Nato until we're a full member, so there will be a window during the application process where Russia could attack without risking war with Nato.

Nothing but empty threats.

1) Russia shares no land border with Sweden.

2) Ships couldn't start from St. Petersburg since they would need to cross Finland/Estonia sea borders.

3) Russian planes are needed elsewhere and they can't attack from St. Petersburg either without flying over NATO (or Finland) skies.

4) Russia barely has enough troops to keep a stalemate in Ukraine. They can't afford to open a second war theater which is already proven by the fact that they had to give up on Kyiv.

5) The only reasonable way Russia could attack is from Kaliningrad but not only does Russia need to defend the little exclave, it would also be impossible for Russia to resupply any troops, planes, ships or ammo without starting a fight with NATO.