| Dulfite said: I voted 7+, but regarding this "Switch effect," at some point it is going to wear off. At some point the amount of people activity playing their Switches is going to decrease and that trend will continue until the system dies. You could release literally the greatest game of all time at year 7 on any device and it will sell far less than if you released it at year 3. People get bored with tech and want something new, not just software, but the actual hardware and its limitations. Kirby would have sold better had it released at year 3. So while I think it will sell 7+ million now, I think it could have sold millions more had it released in 2020. |
I agree with this point overall, however I also think the relevant time period is longer than you think it is. Consider this:
1) Switch software sales are still up YoY for ever fiscal year. Nintendo's report for this latest fiscal year will release in a month, and I highly suspect it will be up YoY again. Software sales have not yet peaked, so Kirby is releasing at a very good time.
2) Elden Ring released 8+ years after the PS4 launched. The PS4 SKU is selling very well.
3) Switch will be a relevant gaming device even longer than the PS4 will be a relevant gaming device.
curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6
My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox







