I have seen the suggestion in this thread that violent crime rates are not good predictors of police violence rates. Kriegman is using it as a predictor though. So this would be quite the challange to Kriegmans assumptions. And it is an interesting point. A point I do struggle with. Because I would say it is at least somewhat of a predictor: If you do not behave in a violent manner (even as a criminal, say stealing from your employees) there is not really a reason for police to meet you with violence. You are not a risk at that point. But if you commit crimes violently (say like a robbery) it would seem clear to me that police would engage you much more ready for violent defence/retaliation. You are a risk in this scenario. So it ought to be at least sonewhat of a predictor.
Now it could be a bad predictor, precisely because police has an anti-black bias that muddies the prediction powers of police violence due to violent crime rates. I really do not know. That is just something I ponder about.
But I have a question as well: does anybody know a reliable predictor for rates of police violence in certain groups? Perhaps there is no one predictor, but a complex mix of different predictors. It really is a complicated topic. So this would speak for such a theory.