The Road to 160m+ for Nintendo Switch

[javi741]

So now this recent direct has just been released showing even more games slated for 2022. It only now gives me even more of a reason to think Switch will hit 160M. This seems like this is going to be the Switch's best year, IMO even topping out 2017 as now we are finally seeing the results of combining the home console & handheld software divisions of Nintendo together on one system which is allowing for the most Nintendo games to release in 2022 compared to other years, and we're now beginning to see why Nintendo been spending a lot on R&D the past few quarters. I feel like this would've happened earlier but of course, the 3DS was still being supported til 2019 and it takes a few years for a game to actually release, plus the pandemic probably slowed things down but we're seeing the high amount of new software release and less ports.

Some people will argue that most people interested in most Nintendo franchises already have a Switch since Nintendo released a lot of their biggest franchises already so this software may not necessarily mean that hardware sales will continue to stay high forever.
While that is true to a certain extent, having sequels to big franchises or more software later in the console's life is still very important in maintaining sales momentum. One of the reasons is because when consumers see that a console keeps getting big new releases later in the console's life, they are far more inclined to purchase the system because they don't see the console getting this many big releases getting discontinued anytime soon, which is a major factor for consumers when they want to buy a new console, they want to be sure that once they buy this console it won't immediately become irrelevant or that the next new and better console is right around the corner. If you search up Nintendo on google you see that one of the most frequently asked questions from consumers on Google relating to Nintendo is "Is the Switch being discontinued soon?" which shows that consumers really care about when a console gets discontinued so they don't feel like they wasted their money on a system that's gonna become irrelevant soon. The Switch in 2022 is showing no signs of that with the amount of software released, so people who haven't already purchased a switch will still have faith the Switch will be a worthy purchase for years to come, which is true.

Also, even tho sequels to pre-existing franchises on Switch aren't as huge system sellers, they still add to the overall console library making the switch more appealing to casuals.

Not to mention, these new game releases will have a high word of mouth, especially a game as big as BOTW 2.

So as a result, I do believe the Switch will reach 160M. I did believe it before the direct, but I believe it even more now after the direct. And the Mario Kart DLC ending late 2023 pretty much confirms that a switch successor in 2023 is not happening for the few people that believed it was. So minimum we'll see a successor in 2024 but I wouldn't at all rule out 2025. Here's how I see Switch's sales in the future.

2022: 21 Million Shipped, 124M Total
2023: 17 Million Shipped, 141M Total
2024 11 Million Shipped, 152M Total
2025 & Beyond, 157M Total