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curl-6 on 31 January 2022
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The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

Yeah I don't buy that Switch takes sales away from PS/Xbox, or vice versa.
Switch launched around PS4's peak and that didn't stop it thriving, similarly PS5 launched during Switch's peak and that didn't stop it selling like crack.
They target different niches and people are more likely to buy both than to go "I was going to get a PS5/Xbox Series, but now cos the Switch is so great, I won't."

Also, farewell Wii. It was a fun comparison to watch, but the time has finally come to wave as it passes by.

I have seen several people make two arguments at the same time which actually contradict one another.

1) "Switch and Playstation target totally different groups of people.  That is why they don't compete."
2)  "Every Switch owner also wants a Playstation (or XBox), so every single one of them will buy two systems."

Both of these arguments cannot be correct at the same time.  Either 1) Switch games are totally repulsive to Playstation owners (and vice versa), so that they would never consider the other console, or 2) Switch games are so fun to Playstation owners that every single one of them will buy a Switch (and vice versa).

Both cannot be true at the same time.  I would invite everyone to pick either one or the other.  However, given Mnementh's link a few posts ago, it really looks like the second one is closer to the truth.  Lots of Switch owners also own a PS4 or XBox1 (and vice versa).  Therefore, the idea that Switch and PS/XBox target different people is WRONG!

The main problem with argument 2) is that, even though it is much closer to the truth, it adopts a 0% or 100% mentality.  Every person who buys one console will automatically buy a second.  This denies basic microeconomics.  The truth is that gamers probably like 2 or more consoles to varying degrees, but many will be unable or unwilling to pay for a second one.  This is basically how lots of competing products work.  E.g. Some people own 2 cars, but many will only buy 1.  That is how it works for consoles too.  A lot of people may be interested in more than 1 system, but they are only willing to pay for 1.

So, the reality for Switch is that it will eat into PS/XBox marketshare, but it won't be on a 1 for 1 basis.   For example if Switch sells 80 million more than 3DS + Wii U, then that doesn't mean a 80 million drop in PS+XBox from Generation 8.  Instead the drop will be somewhere in the 20-60 million range.  However, the drop won't be 0.  What I find amusing is that people say that mobile phones don't compete directly with dedicated systems, and also that they took Nintendo+Sony handhelds from 236m total to 92m total in one generation.  However, suggest that Switch might take 1 sale away from PS+XBox and they'll say it's not remotely possible.  There really is a lack of consistency in a lot of these arguments.

So, basically neither one of these arguments negate what I am saying.  Switch and PS/XBox definitely do appeal to the same types of people and as a result Switch's success must eat into part of that install base.

It's less that they appeal to different people and more that people buy them for different reasons/games, so whether someone buys a Switch generally won't have much bearing on whether they also buy a PS5 or an Xbox Series. A Switch isn't a replacement for a PS/Xbox, they're different enough that they overlap rather than directly competing.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 31 January 2022