I expect exactly that. MS is going after US market hard with their acquisitions. Clearly a western focus and I expect a number of exclusives as a result.
We will see, but what needs to be understood is that MS is interested in Money and its money comes from sales of games and subscriptions to its services. I imagine they will seek to maximise both. Exclusivity is not necessity in order to do that, in fact its a hindrance. What I do expect will be exclusive is Xbox being the only place where you can play all COD games for $15 a month on release (+exclusive content/marketing/Spinoffs etc)
Edit: Its one thing to expect a number of exclusives, another to expect mainline COD to be that exclusive