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Going in it’s favor:

* The first party library will be the strongest of any Xbox generation
* PC hardware is completely unaffordable for all but the absolute wealthiest customers
* Multiple hardware options
* Gamepass
* Microsoft is not done with acquisitions and seems to be trying harder than any previous generation

Going against

* PlayStations inherited market share lead creates a large amount of negative inertia
* Sustained success in Europe remains elusive
* Limited to no buy-in from Japanese AA and A developers (this matters more for western customers who enjoy these types of games than Japanese customers from the perspective of Xbox)

Unknowns that could change the market up in one way or another:

* what happens if there is a crypto currency crash resulting in a price crash for PC parts
* do customers become burnt out/tired of PlayStation’s lack of genre diversity and/or do Sony exclusives start becoming formulaic and predictable
* where does VR fit into the games market for the next 8 years
* does streaming games take off

I think some extremely aggressive Series S sales would go a long way in North America. It’s the only 9th gen console that could realistically be sold at $199 in the US and still make financial sense, and at that price point you would get so many “sure why not” sales that I think getting back in the ballpark of the 360 wouldn’t be out of the question in NA. Not sure if hitting 25 million in Europe is possible though.

I’m guessing 80 million, so just short

Last edited by aTokenYeti - on 16 January 2022