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Torillian on 12 January 2022
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haxxiy said:
Torillian said:

Is there any way to be sure that the leveling off in NYC isn't due to testing limits? When something levels off so quickly like that it kind of looks like it hit some other artificial limitation. Happens sometimes with the instruments I use at work when the sensor gets saturated and can't measure any higher than a certain number. 

I can think of a few:

1. Gompertz modeling of the ascending curve when tests were more widely available;

2. Tracking the positivity rate;

3. Nowcasting;

4. Daily new hospital admissions per capita.

The last one being the most tangible, but it can sometimes also be slightly misleading if you don't break down by age group.

For instance, if the elderly are dramatically more protected/less exposed than the average, they'll have a much flatter curve of cases and hospitalizations even though the peak might long be past.

Edit - there are also methods like this, tracking viral RNA in wastewater, which predates even developing symptoms. Current data from Boston shows a spike that is around ten times higher than any other wave but is currently past the peak:

Thanks for the Viral RNA suggestion, that was interesting. Doesn't seem like you can get charts like this for too many areas but thankfully NC is one of them so I found some interesting graphs for my area. Wish I could see a graph like this for NYC but didn't have any luck finding it. 



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