Switch Sales Top 101M, PS5 Tops 17M - Global Hardware Dec 19 to 25

[Dulfite]

archbrix said:

trunkswd said:

Pretty much no chance the PS5 or Xbox Series X|S will outsell the Switch. Combined PS and Xbox sales have been relatively stable for the past 3 generations with combined sales of around 170 million. I'd expect Xbox to eat into PS sales this generation due to its far stronger first-party lineup than the last generation.

As for how long of a life do I see the Switch having? I wouldn't expect a Switch successor until March 2023 at the earliest. Holiday 2023 or 2024 for the Switch successor seems to be the most likely window for it to launch. 

At the end of 2023 I can see Switch sales of around 135-140 million. Sales of 20-22 million this year and 15-18 million next year.

My thoughts exactly,  That's why when people assume that the PS5 will reach PS4 sales because of its stellar start, I feel that they aren't looking at the bigger picture.  I don't see any way that Xbox Series doesn't outsell the XB1, so unless people expect some massive growth of the PS/Xbox ecosystem over the last few generations, I see the PS5 falling a bit short of the PS4's lifetime sales.

I could be wrong though, since we obviously don't know exactly what will play out yet; maybe Sony goes with PS5 for 10 years before its successor, but not likely.  I think Switch's sales by the end of this year will be beyond what the PS5 will reach.

On top of this, with each passing generation, games get easier to access with more ways to play. There will be people buying a Steam Deck in 2022 that would normally have bought a console. There are many people gaming with Xcloud, Stadia, Amazon, that would otherwise have bought a console. Home console sales are doomed to decrease over generations, but their respective companies profits will only increase.

Hardware sales will one day be meaningless in regards to which company truly dominates.