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Can't see them releasing a successor in the Spring of a given year because that would almost certainly mean it would be announced before the prior year's holidays. That would hurt that year's holidays.

This is basically like what someone else was saying here. They could get away with it with 3DS & Wii U because those systems were barely alive in 2016 (well a little bit more in the 3DS's case and a little bit less in Wii U's case).

Plus I'm sure Nintendo would prefer a holiday launch anyways. They probably wanted to release Switch in Holiday 2016 (and could get away with a March 2017 release for the aforementioned reasons).