I would say Yes, changing just the panel is a low increase is the total production cost, so getting a new screen can help them to keep the $199 price tag for a few more months.
There's a small chance that we get a Switch Lite with HDMI output, is pretty easy for Nintendo to bring back to the motherboard the chip that makes a Switch capable of that.
I can see in one or two years something like this:
$299 - Switch OLED
$249 - Regular Switch
$199 - Switch Lite OLED (HDMI OUT please)
$149 - Regular Switch Lite







