How Series S could be last place in the US, Europe, and Japan, but first-place globally

[scrapking]

VAMatt said:

The problem I see with this analysis is that while the OP correctly points out that we often view these things from a Western perspective and that clouds our judgment, it makes a similar mistake of viewing things through a lens of hardware ownership.

You know what takes up less space than a Series S? The cell phone or laptop that you already own. You know what cost less than a series S? Buying nothing but a controller. And it appears to me that that's what Microsoft is banking on taking hold in the developing world. They are working on cloud gaming. They've done it in a much more intelligent way than Google, in that they have started it as a secondary option for people that are already in the Xbox ecosystem. But, it is very clear that streaming is coming on, and Microsoft is at the forefront of that.  I imagine over the next five years there will be a lot of people subscribed to Gamepass that do not own an Xbox or a gaming rig.

So, while I won't say there's zero chance that the Series S ends up as the best selling console, I will say that I don't think Microsoft is trying to make that happen. They're trying to make XCloud the most popular way to play games, thereby eliminating the need for dedicated gaming hardware (beyond a controller).

Further, since Nintendo and Sony both still seem to be focused on selling hardware, it seems unlikely that Microsoft would beat them in that game. They're not even playing that game.  

Fair enough that mobile devices will be preferable in some areas, no question.  And I agree with you.  Right now Microsoft has Ultimate which has three components (Xbox, PC, and streaming).  But below Ultimate they only have two options, Xbox-only pricing or PC-only pricing.  The obvious missing piece is a streaming-only pricing option.  I expect this to come if and when xCloud streaming exits beta, though.

At that point there are new variables such as xCloud streaming apps in smart TVs.  So I agree with you that Microsoft isn't even playing the same game as Sony and Nintendo.  I 100% agree.

But they're still making consoles, and they made the Series S as a priced-to-move console.  Adjusted for inflation, have we ever had a competitive next-gen console launch as cheap as the Series S?  Certainly not something as capable as it is.  And it has the advantage that it's set up for streaming (which reduces the amount of on-board storage it needs), while still being able to store games locally (for places that might have cheap/decent enough internet, but it's not as reliable as it could be) so it's kind of hedging its bets as to whether it'll be used primarily for streaming, primarily for on-board storage, or for a healthy mix of the two.  And when you're talking bigger markets like India and Brazil, even a small increase in the size of the markets might end up moving more dedicated home consoles than a country like Japan (where handhelds are now dominant instead) or a country like Canada or Australia (where the populations are very low).