| Zippy6 said: I think everything comes down to Nintendo's choices for Switch's end of life. Will the Switch get substantial price cuts? Or like the PS4 will it not. Will the Switch get a Switch Pro? Seems a bit late for that to me. And the one that will have the biggest effect, when will the Switch successor launch. Holiday 2023? Spring 2024? Holiday 2024? It's basically these 3 things that determine whether it's going to sell about 135m or if it has a shot at getting to 150m+ |
That is true, the 3DS effectively killed the NDS momentum, particularly when they announced the price cut. Right before the price cut the Nintendo DS had sold about 4.3M, which, based on trajectory, means it could have sold about 12-14M that year, but it only sold 9M because sales dropped significantly after the announcement of the price drop for 3DS.
Personally, I think that a price cut would be the largest factor because the Switch's largest area of potential growth, Europe, are historically more interested in lower priced Nintendo products (NDS, Wii, Gameboy). Switch is guaranteed to be top 3 in NA (13M from number 3), Japan (2.3M from top 3) and RotW (2.1M from top 3), and will probably end up in top one or two in at least two of those regions. In Europe, however, they are about 23M from the top three. It's taken the Switch over 4.5 years to reach 25M, so, with the current pricing model and trajectory, it's pretty doubtful it will reach that third spot. Likely it will settle around 5 or 6.
You can get a Series S for less than a Switch, and a PS5 DE for just 100 more in most of Europe. So I think this is where the Switch will falter unless Nintendo starts targeting them more.
