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Farsala said:

Maybe never just because games like GTA V being bundled will probably include the physical version to make it feel like you get something. GTA V sold 150m or something like that so if GTA VI is 90% digital, that is still 15m physical.

Yeah if any game could make this not come true it's a 100+ million seller like GTA though I don't see the bundling happening unless it's a collector's edition since that'll decrease profit.

Zippy6 said:

Probably, digital ratio is rising every year. Doubt we'll see any games sell 10m physical after 2030. Physical ratio will be either too low or physical won't exist on the newest systems at all.

That's an aspect I was considering adding to the OP, Microsoft and Sony potentially not making a version of their next consoles with a disc drive. Assuming a 2027 release date it'll be at a time where physical share is starting to get fairly low but they might not wanna take a risk and give an advantage to the other since if only one offered a disc drive all the physical die hards would pick that one.

Zippy6 said:

Call of Duty Modern Warfare (2019) had the highest first year sales in franchise history, selling 30m and two thirds of sales were digital, so 10m physical, 20m digital. So we're already at the stage where a series like CoD will probably never sell 10m physical again.

That stage will happen a bit sooner than I expected then so we might already be at the point where it's just Nintendo and Rockstar selling over 10m physical copies of their biggest games.

victor83fernandes said:

Games are getting bigger and bigger and drive space seems to be getting smaller, ps5 is only little over 600gb. Digital will not take off until next gen. Even then, a lot of people will still prefer discs as you have so many advantages to discs.

The number of people preferring discs will decline overtime, a look at DVD/Blu-ray sales over the past decade shows that convenience will win over the overwhelming majority. Drive space is a concern though so slow internet speeds or data caps in certain parts of the world do decrease the chance of the prediction happening.