Switch Sales Predictions: Open Your Eyes - UPDATE: Switch LTD Shipments Reach 111.08m by June 30th, Forecast for Current Fiscal Year Remains at 21.0m

[PAOerfulone]

Assuming they meet their revised 24m forecast, that would put Switch LTD shipments at 108.59 million by the end of March 2022.

The semiconductor shortages + the overwhelming demand for the OLED model ensures that supply will still be a factor next year. Whatever they can't make and ship this fiscal year, they will do so in the next, which works out in FY 22's favor.

I still think next fiscal year will be down from this one as next year will be when the Switch starts to show its age. Regardless, I still expect next fiscal year to be another 20m+ year. Around the same levels as 2019. And then a gradual decline after that leading up to the launch of the next system. Then, a sharp decline after that (This is assuming their next system is backwards compatible and launches at $300/$350) and then eventual cease of production. So something along the lines of this:

FY 21: 24 million (LTD: 108.59 million)
FY 22: 20-22 million (LTD: 128.59 - 130.59 million) - Strong 2022 software lineup + shortages resolved and increased supply
FY 23: 16-19 million (LTD: 144.59 - 149.59 million) - Price cuts across all models + Switch 2 launch at the end of the fiscal year (March 2024)
FY 24: 9-10 million (LTD: 153.59 - 159.59 million)
FY 25: 3-5 million (LTD: 156.59 - 164.59 million)
FY 26+: 1-2 million (LTD: 157.59 - 166.59 million)