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Norion on 30 October 2021
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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Norion said:

An important factor to consider is saturation since there are only so many people in Japan who will buy a console. Switch will head into 2022 at 23m so I expect saturation to kick in soon slowing down sales. The strong software releases will help soften the decline though so reaching the DS there is possible.

Saturation effects start to kick in when a system has approximately half of its lifetime sales.  This is also when the system peaks.  It still remains to be seen if Switch will peak in Japan in 2020 or 2021.  However, given how close the two year end totals will be, I'd say the theoretical peak was sometime earlier this year.  If Switch's peak was in 2020, then double it's LTD for end of 2020 and add a few million.  If Switch's peak was in 2021, then double the 2021 LTD and subtract a few million.  That gives a pretty good ballpark of what Switch's lifetime sales will be.

I don't see the Switch having a chance of reaching the high 30's but if it does over 5 million next year it'll start to seem possible. I look at the DS and see that once it got past 20 million sales slowed down a lot with a large drop in 2008 so the Switch doing around 4 million next year seems likely to me.