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javi741 on 28 September 2021
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yo33331 said:
noshten said:

lets say it's at 107 million this year(so 18 million for the second half of the year), next year it's unlikely to fall below 23 million with Splatoon 3, Breath of the Wild Sequel, Open World Pokemon - so we are looking at 130 million end of 2022. Even if a successor is launched at the end of 2023 I can see it surpassing 150 million, if a Successor launches after 2024 than its likely above 160 million. It all depends on what exactly are the plans for Nintendo - if it makes sense to prolong the life of the Switch until 2025 when they can offer something comparable to XSS performance on a handheld while still making a profit on hardware, I can see it trying to prolong the Switch until late 2024 early 2025.

So far they've launched a dock-less Switch - the Switch Lite, so the next possible iteration is a TV only Switch that acts as a supplementary computing & docking for Lites/OG/OLED Switches. Nintendo are already developing in a scalable way, that allows them to easily bump up resolution & fps on major titles, while it would be up to 3rd Parties to decide if it makes financial sense to update their existing games or leverage this option for future titles. This is how I think they can prolong the Switch's life and approach a crazy figure like 170 million. Basically the only chances of this happening is Switch 2 doesn't launch until 2025 and a Switch Pro is actually a complementary device that on it's own is just a TV only console with an empty Dock.

You are wayyy too optimistic.

I can't see the Switch making more than 25M for this year, or around 13-14M at max for the second half of it. And finishing around 102M by end of this year.

Next year will drop hard, and the successor is very likely coming in spring 2023. So switch don't have much time left. Around 130M lifetime is reasonable prediction.

Thinking the Switch successor will release in spring 2023 is illogical. Typically Nintendo unveils the existence of their next console & their codename for it around 1.5-3 years before it actually releases. The Switch was unveiled 2 years before it released as "NX". The Wii U was unveiled around 2 years before release, Wii 2.5 years before release. Gamecube was 2.5 years, N64 was 3 years, ect.... If Nintendo is releasing a successor in Spring 2023 we should already be hearing about it by now from Nintendo, or at the very least some type of rumors or leaks that its on the horizon, we haven't seen any of that and Nintendo hasn't even hinted at new hardware on the horizon at all in their investor meetings and its now late 2021, only 1.5 years before your predicted switch successor is forecasted to release. Its illogical to think its coming that early when we haven't heard shit about it thus far, we should at least have seen hints or rumors of it by now but nothing is pointing to a Switch successor in spring 2023 right now.

Plus, the Switch is forecasted to sell around 25 Million this fiscal year alone ending March 2022. Why in the world would Nintendo want to immediately drop a system that is still selling at historic pace with historic profit without one price cut yet by releasing a successor as early as Spring 2023. It just doesn't make sense at all from a business standpoint. 

Also, we still got a multitude of AAA games forecasted to release for Switch in 2022, we got Splatoon 3, Zelda BOTW 2, new 3D Kirby, Bayonetta 3, Mario+Rabbids sequel, Pokemon Arceus, and likely more unannounced titles that are on the horizon for Switch in 2022. If 2022 was the Switch's last year before the successor releases no way it would get this much support in its final year, typically Nintendo consoles in their final year  rarely have a multitude of AAA game releases. Typically the final year of Nintendo consoles consist of either remasters or budget filler titles like Mario tennis or something like that, Nintendo doesn't invest  into so many AAA games in the consoles final year, as typically Nintendo would rather shift those games onto the successor and within its launch window to give the successor momentum to start. It just doesn't make sense for Nintendo to release this many big games for Switch if 2022 were its final year.

Plus, it doesn't help that there's still a major chip shortage as Nintendo is struggling enough to supply the regular Switch right now. To Switch manufacturing to a successor that isn't guaranteed to be a success from the Switch which is widely successful is risky from a business side.

All this shows that a spring 2023 release for Switch 2 is highly unlikely as the earliest I could see a Switch 2 releasing is holiday 2023, but the more likely scenario is 2024 or 2025 right now. Which would mean that the Switcg selling over 130 and around 140-150 shouldn't be a problem.