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javi741 on 27 September 2021
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I'm late to this, but here's how I see it.

Right now if Switch from now on were to decline at a steady and average pace for a successful Nintendo console it'll be on pace to sell around 145 Million Units lifetime, which currently seems like the most realistic scenario, and the 40% plurality of the voters in this poll would agree with that.

In a slightly more optimistic case, the Switch would sell between 150-160M Units putting it around PS2 & DS sales. However, the Switch selling this much isn't as optimistic as some people want to make it out to be. It's certainly within the Switch's reach to surpass 150 Million sold. The current pace the Switch is at right now is to sell 145 Million, which is only 5 Million away from 150 Million so it is easily within the Switch's reach to get over 150M. It really all depends on how long Nintendo wants to extend the lifespan with the Switch, which is currently somewhat vague at this time. Nintendo has stated multiple times they want to extend the lifecycle beyond the typical console lifecycle and said they're around the midpoint in its life 3.5 years after Switch launched, which would mean Switch 2 will release 2024. However, actions speak louder than words and Nintendo has had a history of not staying consistent to what they say. So we have to wait & see regarding how long the Switch will last. However, if the Switch gets really good pricecuts and Nintendo doesn't immediately drop the Switch after the successor and markets it as a budget system, 150M would be more likely than not but we need to see what happens. Nintendo might not be willing to do crazy price cuts on the Switch and rather sell each one at a profit even if it means fewer sales, kinda like what Sony did with the PS4.
However, I do think there is a good chance the Switch 1 remains supported after the Switch 2 since Nintendo wouldn't want to bank too much on the Switch 2 if its a failure especially since they only have one platform now, so the Switch will be a safety net kinda like how the 3DS was to the Switch. But we'll need to wait and see. However, 150M is certainly within the Switch's reach based on the pace its going and not as super optimistic as people want to make it out to be.

However, the slightly more pessimistic side would be anywhere between 130-140M, its certainly possible that the Switch fall just short of 140M if Nintendo decides to kill the Switch early, but most likely scenario is anywhere between 140-150 at this time. 150-160 being slightly optimistic while 130-140 being slightly pessimistic.

However, anything less than 130 is extremely pessimistic, almost considered an extreme prediction as Nintendo would need to kill off the Switch at an unprecedented rate starting now to fall short of 130M units.

Anything over 170 is extremely optimistic and 160M is also very optimistic.