german election on sunday

[Barozi]

If we believe what the political parties are saying before the election then there aren't a lot of options when it comes to forming coalitions.

CDU/CSU most likely won't win the election and have already declared that they won't be the junior partner in a coalition. So the only way they could get into government is by doing a black-green-yellow coalition. But there's no reason for the Greens to betray the other left parties to form a coalition with two conservative parties when they have other options as well. Therefore, the upcoming coalition won't involve CDU/CSU.

Red-green-red is possible but the SPD is still pissed off at the Left because a bunch of them used to be SPD members and the Left is the most critical towards the SPD for having lost the left ideology. The Left would like to form a coalition with the SPD but not vice versa. However, since there aren't many options I could imagine that most SPD members would agree to the coalition in the end. Also a coalition like this already exists in three of the 16 Bundesländer.

Red-green seems unlikely. Even if the Left wouldn't be able to achieve the 5% treshold (they are currently trending between 6% and 8% so I don't see it happening) red-green might not get a majority.

Only other realistic option would be red-green-yellow. But that highly depends on the FDP and considering they didn't want to form a coalition with the Greens at the last election they might not want to do it this time either.

Last edited by Barozi - on 22 September 2021