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Dulfite on 10 August 2021
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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Dulfite said:

Aside from HW: AoC and a massive amount of AA and A level games, 2020 had the following popular games:

-Super Mario 3D All Stars (shipped over 9 million by 3/31/21)

-Doom Eternal (not sure how much this one sold)

-Clubhouse 51 (over 3 million shipped by 3/31/21)

-Immortals Fenyx Rising (not sure how much this sold but Ubisoft was pleased publically with Switch sales)

-Paper Mario The Oragami King (over 3 million shipped by 3/31/21)

-MarioKart Live Circuit (over 1 million shipped by 3/31/21)

-Ori and the Will of the Wisps (no clue what this sold)

-Ninjala (free, but very popular game)

-Xenoblade Chronicles 1 HD (over 1.5 million shipped by 3/31/21)

-Darksiders Genesis (no clue what this sold)

-Pikmin 3 Delux (over 2 million shipped by 3/31/21)

I'm not certian off the top of my head which of these came out when, but these all drove hardware last year for somebody. Age of Calimity was not the only game that came out in 2020 that drove people to buy a Switch come holiday. There were plenty of games that came out that year that still seemed new that people bought in to play.

The Pokemon game coming out this year is extremely ridiculoud by the fans. I wouldn't be surprised if it is the worst selling remake to date because of it. I personally like the art style, but I have seen a lot more critisize it than praise it.

The OLED model that many complained about after it was released, and even moreso after Steam Deck was shown, is not something, I think, that will sell well. I think it will historically do worse than LITE, and far worse than the base model. Nintendo gamers that play on the go aren't interested in the best specs possible, and people that want the best visuals will play docked no matter what. The OLED fills a tiny niche in their wider market, it doesn't open up a huge opportunity in my opinion. Could I be wrong? Sure, but it is my opinion that Switch sales will be down Y/Y from fiscal 2020 by at least a few million consoles.

1) All of those games you mentioned put together sold about 1/2 of Animal Crossing's total.  The year 2020 was all about Animal Crossing when it came to sales.  Most of the other games hardly did anything except for the evergreens.

2) All of your other comments seem to be based off what people say on the internet.  The internet is the land of bullshit.  If the internet says one thing, then you should probably bet that the opposite will happen.  The internet complains about Pokemon Sw/Sh, and it's on track to be the second best selling title ever.  If they are complaining about OLED and BD/SP, then you should bet on both doing well.  The internet narrative has very little to do with sales reality.

So games only count as success and pushing hardware if they sell 25-30 million copies? Seriously, are we at that point now where expectations of sales are this ridiculously high? 3 million sales is WONDERFUL and absolutely moves hardware. Yes, nothing beat ACNH, but I didn't say anything did last year.

In my opinion, OLED Switch is just filling a niche market on Switch. It will do no better than the New 3ds/New 3ds XL did compared to 3ds.