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Torpoleon on 10 July 2021
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@yo33331 I definitely don't think they will shop 8 million in Q1 2022 (4M at best is my guess). I just think that Nintendo will have a stronger holiday this year due to a stronger lineup and a new model. They pretty much have to have a better holiday than last year in order for their FY projection to be met. Of course, it's possible for the projection to be revised, but I'm still sticking to my belief that Nintendo will meet their projection for this FY.

Also, I didn't say that I felt a Pro model would release in 2023. I was talking about the FY ending on March 2023, which runs from April 2022-March 2023 (so I would see a Pro model launching alongside Zelda around the holidays in 2022). I wouldn't rule out a successor launching in 2025, but it does possibly seem more likely for it to be Holiday 2024. Can't see it being any sooner though. One thing to keep in mind is that a lot of big series are getting new entries this year, next year and likely the year after on Switch. It's going to take time for those series to appear again on a successor, so I wouldn't want Nintendo to rush out a successor.

@Chicho It's true that what goes up must come down, but that doesn't mean that Switch sales will drop like a rock. It just means that we could see slower drops, like we have started to see now. Switch will probably be down in 2021 vs 2020 and probably 2022 vs 2021, and so on, but I can't see it being tremendously big drops or "falling off a cliff", at least not until a successor launches (especially if it is backwards compatible, which it really should be).

Ultimately, I'd like to see Switch sales turn out something like this (if a successor launches in Holiday 2024):

End of Dec 2021: ~25 million (LT: ~105.59 million)
End of Dec 2022: ~22 million (LT: ~128 million)- Switch Pro launching around the holidays. BOTW 2, Splatoon 3, Mario + Rabbids, Arceus, Kirby?, DK? and more
End of Dec 2023: ~18 million (LT: ~146 million)- Pokemon Gen 9, Metroid Prime 4, Fire Emblem?, Bayo 3?, Monolith Soft?, Pikmin?, some more HD remakes?, Price Drop? and more?
End of Dec 2024: ~9 million (LT: ~155 million)- Switch successor launches in November. Let's Go, Johto on Switch 1? Maybe more ports and remakes? And more?

After that, I could see the Switch coughing up a few million more over the next 2 years or so and passing the PS2 before its 10th birthday (if Switch 2 takes off in popularity I could see the Switch being discontinued sometime in 2026). Maybe it will even get another price drop.

Also, the games that I listed are just some of the games I could see releasing in those years. It's entirely possible that there could be more than what I listed (or less), which obviously changes things. It's not an easy thing to predict.

It does get harder to imagine Nintendo waiting until Holiday 2025 for a successor though because I can't imagine what else Nintendo could release for the Switch at that point. Hopefully people don't mind waiting a while for the successor to get a Zelda game.