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Kakadu18 on 10 July 2021
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yo33331 said:
Torpoleon said:

@yo33331 I think it would be pretty easy for Switch to pass 130M even if a successor launches in 2023 (though that seems too early...hoping for holiday 2024 at the latest). Assuming Nintendo meets their projections, the Switch will be at just over 110 million at the end of March 2022, and that would be its third FY over 20M. While I would expect the FY ending March 2023 to be down, I can't see it being drastically down with big titles like BOTW 2 & Splatoon 3 launching. Maybe they'll even release a Switch Pro during that FY's holiday.

It will reach 102M at best by end of this year.

So you are saying that it will make 8M for 3 months ? despite the year being weaker than this one, and this one switch hit 8M in may ? so around 5 months. No way.

And also no way they would wait till end of 2023 for Pro model, and no way they are releasing successor in 2025.

As of March 31st 2021 Nintendo's official shipments were 84.59mil units. Iirc their FY projection is 26mil, so 110mil at the end of March 2022.

I think it will reach 105mil at the least at the end of the CY, considering the holiday quarter this year has a way better line up than last year and that coupled with the oled model will likely lead to a bigger holiday season than in 2020.

Since Nintendo overprojected sales for 2018 they have been cautious to not do it again and the Switch outperformed their projections the following two years.

Looking at the already announced games for 2022 I don't see a reason why the Switch shouldn't sell over 20mil units in 2022. It would need to drop of a cliff worse than the Wii to not reach 130mil in 2023 with ease.

About your point with the 3DS sales dropping when more PS4 and Xbox One stock was available doesn't make much sense with the Switch. Why? Because the 3DS was just a mildly popular more modern iteration of the DS, the Switch on the other hand is wildly popular and a hybrid console, a new format. The Switch is in no direct competition to the other consoles.