I think the minimum is 3 million. There’s just so much pent up demand, there’s the Switch effect, but most importantly there just isn’t that much competition internally for those sales. It also helps that it doesn’t get the usual release window of August, which isn’t nearly as sweet a sales window as October going in to the holidays.
Of course, if this game gets panned and lands a bunch of 7s and low 8s review-wise we could definitely be looking at another Other M, but at this point I don’t think that is likely.
I absolutely believe that Dread will be the best selling Metroid to date, and that milestone will last until MP4 breaks it to pieces.
Finally Metroid will earn its place among the “average-to-good” pantheon of Nintendo titles in terms of sales figures.