Yes, all those franchises experienced some increase in sales, but to say they are "thriving" in my opinion is quite a stretch, they did better than in the previous entries and that's it.
Also, I don't think any software is guaranteed to sell well until people get to actually see the game.
Pokemon is arguably the second biggest Nintendo IP and even being released on Switch it won't be the best selling Pokemon, because the game is trash. Not even the massive amount of money Pokemon Co spend with marketing (probably much more than the game budget itself) was enough to change that
Edit:Also NSMB U, not even adding Wii U sales, will be the best selling 2D Mario, so here you have it, the sales of any software will depends of the software itself and not only its platform
Let's just calm down and wait. Even if Dread don't outsell the previous entries doesn't really mean the franchise is doomed as you imply
When was the last time Pokemon sold over 20 million, though? The last time that happened before Sword/Shield did it was in Gen 2, (Gold/Silver), back at the tail-end of the original Pokemania Phenomenon, back when Pokemon was the biggest thing on the planet. And now, it's just 2.01 million units away from passing Gold/Silver for 2nd on the all time list. And who knows? Sword/Shield has shown to have much better legs than Pokemon games of the past. If it doesn't reach Red/Blue, it could come pretty damn close. And that would all be IN SPITE of the quality issues that you mentioned... So, the software itself doesn't seem to be that big of a factor, albeit an important one, just like the system it is on, among other factors that I described.
And I'm not sure what you're trying to say regarding NSMBU. Are you saying it WILL be the best selling 2D Mario game even without the Wii U sales? If so, you're just proving my point.
But, yes, you are right that the software itself is an important factor. But, there are other factors that are just as important into making it a hit, which I have detailed in my last 3 posts. All of which Dread should have going for it, which is why it would be a disappointment if it doesn't achieve similar feats as other games from other franchises that have been in its position.
You say no software is guaranteed to sell well until people have actually seen the game. Well, we've all seen it and the reception has been overwhelmingly positive. Quite the opposite from Sword/Shield where that game was panned by a lot fans pretty much from the start. Dread clearly passed the '1st impressions' test with flying colors. And if you've played Samus Returns, then you have a very good idea of what the game is going to be like considering it's made by the same developer. But unlike Samus Returns, this is on a system in its prime, a system that's white hot, and being positioned as a major, top-tier 1st party entry on that system. So, it should achieve record-setting numbers by the franchise's standards. If you're a Metroid fan, I don't see how you wouldn't demand anything less.
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