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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Bofferbrauer2 said:

Number 3 is pretty much guaranteed.

As for number 2, Nintendo hasn't announced much during the pandemic but instead said that many things were in the works, so I guess we'll get a nice load of game announcement at their E3 presentation this year.

And about Number 1, does it really? 3 Reasons why I think this doesn't have to be:

  1. If you include the inflation, $149.99 would be more comparable to the cheapest PS2 price, so let's set this as a more realistic bar. But even then,
  2. Did the PS2 and DS really sold that many consoles at that price tag to make much of a difference? I very much doubt it.
  3. The much cheaper Lite gets outsold 4:1 on a normal, non-supply limited day in Japan by the $100 more expensive base model, and I'm sure the rest of the world have similar ratios. So I think the value proposition is much more important than just the raw price.

I agree (with the bold).  Furthermore, I've changed my mind on Mario Kart 9.  I used to think it wouldn't come to Switch.  But the Splatoon 3 announcement made me think again.  If Nintendo is bringing 2 Splatoon games to the same platform, then I don't see why they wouldn't bring Mario Kart 9.  In general, all of those people who said, "Nintendo has already fired all of their big guns" didn't realize that Nintendo is reloading and is firing off a lot of those big guns again.

Good takes by both of you.

And yes, Mario Kart 9 on Switch is still very much possible, though not a given. The heavily rumored Switch 4K model is supposedly coming in September of this year. That makes me think that Switch 2 won't launch until at least November 2023, if not March or November 2024. 

Mario Kart 9 could come out on Switch (probably 2022, maybe 2023) and then have an enhanced port released on Switch 2 right at launch or in the launch window. That way, you could stretch the game out over two platforms. I mean Nintendo did that with Mario Kart 8 after all. And that way you have a killer app (even if it's not a truly new game) available right on Switch 2 at the start. Mario is Nintendo's biggest IP, and more specifically Mario Kart is.

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 161 million (was 73 million, then 96 million, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million, then 156 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima