90-100 million
The future of industry is streaming services and subscription hardcore gamers can ignore it as much they want but the casual gamer who only wants to play next Fifa and Call of Dury will give priority to whatever gives them the cheaper deal
Sony resilience in fully embrace a new business model will cost them some late gen sales, as we can see by the sharp decline in PS4 sales there is no more warranty of PS consoles having exceptional legs and PS4 support was very healthy in 2020 and will get many cross gen titles this year, that means PS4 probably already exhausted their pool of customers who intended to buy a Playstation and my guess is this pool isn't exactly growing anymore
So far console market continued success was due to an increase in purchase power population growth, stable prices when we take inflation in count as well as the growth of emergent markets
Population isn't growing at all in Sonyland: Europe. The decrease of new born european children are haunting console makers soon or later, even worse when those children are all born into streaming world and maybe a big white box maybe not be as attractive ad playing online on their PCs
Emergent markets are going to suffer a severe crisis in next years thanks to Covid pandemic. More fragile Latam economies are the one to struggle the most. Asian markets will do much more fine, but Playstation will face a stronger competition in China where Nintendo is probably going to dominate their console market for some time
And of course, this gen is the first time in a while prices are climbing and of I'm not sure if the impact will pass unnoticed trough consumers. Third parties being less expensive using Game Pass already make the Playstation 5 less attractive from a consumer standpoint. Sony seems to be aware of that, that's why they are consolidating their IPs, but I feel Sony IPs are VERY limited to action adventure story focused games, as much there is a lot market and demand to them I'm totally sure they won't be enough to carry a system if PC and Streaming slowly becomes the norm to play 3rd parties
