Well, at the very least we can rule out the kind of timeline outlined in the original post.
I don't blame TC for being pessimistic, I'm certainly skeptical myself if this year's third trimester and 2022 will be up to scratch, but now that we know of games like Splatoon 3 and Pokemon Legends Arceus we're definitely not headed for the sort of fizzling out over the next year that Wii had in 2011-2012.
Third party support is also way better than Wii's late life.