Will Switch outsell DS? PS2? Or neither?

[Darwinianevolution]

Matsku said:

Darwinianevolution said:

SKMBlake said:

Yes, and no.

We didn't get another 3D Mario (neither the Super Mario 3D All Stars collection nor 3D World and Bowser's Fury is "another 3D Mario") so there is still room for this to happen. And we al know what "3D Mario" means, it means 10+ million sales, 97 on Metacritic, an redefining what a great game it is. We didn't get this since Super Mario Odyssey, and I am still hoping for Odyssey 2, just like Super Mario Galaxy 2 was way superior to Galaxy 1.

And we'll get an open world Pokémon game, which is requested by the fans for ages.

And Splatoon 3 was anounced 2 months ago, so I don't understand your point about Splatoon 2.

And regarding Zelda games, we have a second one coming, aslo anounced.

And Metroid Prime 4 of course, and Bayonetta 3.

And I still believe Mario Kart 9 will happen. Not now, since the sales momentum is tremendous, but at some point.

But at a certain point we're going to get diminishing returns. People who might buy MK9 probably already bought a Switch for MK8, people who might buy Splatoon 3 already bought a Switch for Splatoon 2, people who might buy Zelda BotW 2 already bought a Switch for BotW, and so on. They will move hardware, sure, but there's a long road to 150m units, and I'm not sure if this will be enough to get there. Games like Pikmin, Metroid, Bayonetta... will sell well, but they aren't traditional system sellers.

And as for 3rd party, most of them are going to focus more on the PS5/XBoxX. They've had four years to bring big titles to the Switch, and yet there haven't been that many big projects coming. Monster Hunter was obvious because it sells the best on handhelds and the Switch is the only non-mobile handheld around, but other than that? Either PS360 ports (and even then you'd think we would've gotten way more of those), general multiplats like Minecraft, Just Dance, Fifa... or relatively small projects like Octopath Traveller. It would be weird for them to now of all times focus on the Switch, when the new consoles are starving for content. It's unlikely that any 3rd party project will become a major system seller, especially now that the userbase is already above +80m.

There are Still Traditional 3rd Party system sellers in Japan that could be at least timed Switch exclusive like Smt V I mentioned and Dragon Quest 12.

Also I wouldn't have bought a Switch for just MK8 even if I didn't own a WiiU, but could have for MK9.

You also Failed to mention Pokémon Legends which like Blake said is an open-world Pokémon game. I'm predicting at least 3mill console sales the month it launches.

Shin Megami Tensei is quite a niche franchise, only the Persona games would be able to really move hardware. Dragon Quest is big, but people who buy JRPGs probably already bought them for either Xenoblade, DQ11, Octopath, Fire Emblem...

And as for Pokemon Legends, it will move consoles, but we're talking 150m. We have no idea whether it's going to be as big as a main title or if it's going to make spinoff numbers. We know too little about it to assume anything. And anyway, Sword/Shield are going to become the second best selling pokemon games of all time (only a couple of million units to beat GSC), people who want pokemon already have a console.