Year End Prediction Thread (Japan - because imitation is the sincerest form of flattery)

[TheSource]

Washimul Zelda outsold Resistance 4:1 in Japan. I'm also not convinced Metal Gear Solid 4 will reach Japan with enough time left in the year to sell over a million. I can see it just making the end of 2007 in Japan, perhaps the last week of November - but don't be surprised if it is delayed. Frankly, I think they are going to announce a 360 version of it as well. Also, most people have FF13 in 2008. Heavenly Sword looks interesting, but it comes out soon. So it would have to sell near 1:1 with PS3 to sell a million units this year. I think you'll see it sell to roughly 1/3 PS3 owners this year..around 550,000. To me Motorstorm for PS3 in Japan is the equivalent of Wave Race 64. It might sell because the owners are starving for software, but it isn't something most Japanese want. I think a system needs 6 good games (for the market) in it's first 6 months to sell well in Japan. PS3 has two gundams, VF5...and thats about it until April. Wii has Wii Sports, Wii Play, Zelda, Wario Ware, Paper Mario, One Piece, Pokemon, and Fire Emblem in terms of appealing Japanese games to sell 100,000+ between launch and April. Also, for PS3 to be at say..3 million units for MGS4 to sell 2 million units (because it will not sell 1 to 1 with the hardware) by the end of this year...it would have to sell...about 56,000/ week. Higher than it has sold at any point in after January 7, 2007. Lastly, there is no way in hell PS3 outsells the DS this year. DS has a new set of Pokemon games, more non-games coming, the old non-games still selling well (Brain Training, English Training, etc), New Super Mario Brothers, Animal Crossing DS, and Mario Kart DS still selling well, and DQIX, the biggest series in Japan. From Nov 19-March 5, PS3 is under 800,000 units in Japan. 300,000 of those sales came in one month - December. Another 180,000 by Dec 1 (within three weeks of launch). 490,000 in 7 launch-holiday weeks. 290,000 in 9 post 2006 weeks. Of which the first saw 70,000. 32,000 is the average with Jan 1-7. 26,000 not including that one week. Even the 26,000 is high because of the recent Gundam and VF5. On most weeks, when big games do not come out, sales are between 18,000 and 22,000 for PS3. Wii consistently sells over 50,000 according to all tracking firms. Until this week it was selling 65,000 to 80,000 per week. I suspect shipments are being diverted, or with held to prepare for Super Paper Mario in April. I think they want to save 10,000 units a week for 6 weeks, then add the 80,000 shipment, to have 140,000 ready units, by which point the increased manufacturing will be in effect for the following weeks.