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Sogreblute on 20 March 2021
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Shadow1980 said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

Ok but why are you assuming Switch will have exactly the same DS sales trajectory? 

Switch turned 4 years old this month. At this point of DS lifecicle DS already got its first revision and was heading towards the second revision 

More important: 3DS launched early 2011 about 6 years after DS launch depending on which market we are talking about 

Switch however isn't going to be replaced anytime soon. It haven't got yet a major revision, nor a price cut and are showing signs of a heavy software support as far as 2022. I don't think it will suffer the DS fate of being killed earlier than necessary, I will be REALLY surprised if Switch successor comes out in 2023 

You are comparing Switch with DS, but maybe you should star comparing it with Game Boy. Switch next revision can be indeed a jump like Game Boy to Game Boy Color, are guaranteed support for more 4 years i.e. Switch successor launching only in 2025. In this scenario I see no problem on Switch keeping tracking ahead of DS in 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025

@Bolded. I don't believe I did. In fact, I pointed out that it had a better start than the DS in the U.S., but started losing its LTD lead in 2019, the gains of 2020 only partially slowed down the losses, and that the Switch is now selling more slowly than the DS.

As for the Game Boy, its life cycle was an anomaly. Nothing ever persisted as long as it did. By time the Color came out, the Game Boy was over 9 years old. Because of its age, complete sales data for the Game Boy is hard to come across, but what data there is indicates that in the mid 90s the Game Boy was already in a period of decline, barely maintaining relatively low-level sales. When the Color came out, the market responded to it as if it were a next-gen system rather than the mere spec upgrade it was. And the Color wasn't even out three years before the GBA was released, and when the GBA was released support for the Color quickly dried up.

If you want to think the Switch is going to have a 12-year primary life cycle including all revisions, be my guest. But every system is replaced at some point. Except for the Game Boy, nothing has lasted longer than 8 years before being replaced by a next-gen system, and only two (the 360 & Famicom) lasted longer than 7. Even systems that were doing very well had replacements announced and released when they were doing well. Nobody simply leaves a system on the market for ages anymore without planning on replacing it in 6-8 years. Nintendo is probably already drawing up plans for the Switch's replacement as we speak. The Switch isn't going to last until 2027 or later. It certainly isn't going to sell at a high level forever. As with every other system, most people that want one will eventually have one, sales will decline, and Nintendo will replace it to restart the cycle.

There is no way Nintendo would release the Switch successor in 2027. It will be before that (2024 is my guess). The Gameboy was on the market for 12 years before the GBA came out. Some people say that the Gameboy Color was the successor, but it wasn't. It was the "upgraded system". Switch sales are amazing now and it will pass PS4 and the Gameboy, but passing PS2 and DS is still doubtful.