Switch Sales Predictions: Open Your Eyes - UPDATE: Switch LTD Shipments Reach 111.08m by June 30th, Forecast for Current Fiscal Year Remains at 21.0m

[PAOerfulone]

Based on the Hardware Sales Data from Nintendo's Shipments, we have the following figures with the 3 quarter numbers in parentheses, and the percentage of that 3 quarter number towards the final yearly total being underlined:

FY 03/18 - 15.05 million units (12.12); 80.53156146%
FY 03/19 - 16.95 million units (14.48); 85.42772861%
FY 03/20 - 21.03 million units (17.75); 84.40323348%

So we're basically in a range between 80.5-85.4%.

If we applied each of those percentages to this Fiscal Year, with the number currently at 24.10 million units, then these would be the 3 projected final totals, with the projected Q4 sales in parentheses.

~80.5% - 29.93 million units (5.83)
~85.4% - 28.21 million units (4.11)
~84.4% - 28.55 million units (4.45)

So, we'd be looking at a final total somewhere between the range of 28.21 - 29.93 million units for the Fiscal Year.

This would place it just short of that coveted 30 million mark that, to my knowledge, only the DS has been able to crack. But there's one thing that makes me doubt these numbers and makes me think the range will be higher. Two of the three projected figures listed here would mean that the Q4 shipments would be lower than the Q1 shipments, which have not been the case up to this point. And the one projected figure where the Q4 shipment would be higher is so miniscule that it would essentially be flat.

Q4 shipments for each of the Switch's Fiscal Years have been consistently higher than Q1 shipments and I don't see how this Fiscal Year will be any different, especially when this quarter is loaded with software from Bowser's Fury to Bravely Default 2 to Persona 5 Strikers in the U.S., all capped off with Monster Hunter Rise to close out that quarter in late March.

It could go either way, but I'm leaning more towards pro-30 million, than anti-30 million.

Last edited by PAOerfulone - on 09 February 2021