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noshten said:

2019 Holiday Result 

Hardware: 10.8M

Software: 64.6M

Top Software

  1. Pokémon Sword / Shield - 16M
  2. Luigi's Mansion 3 - 5.37M

Last Quarter

Hardware: 6.85M

Software: 49.82M

Top 5 Software: 

  1. Super Mario 3D Collection - 5.21M
  2. New Horizon - 3.64M
  3. Paper Mario - 2.82M
  4. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 2.24M
  5. Ring Fit Adventure - 1.94M 


Hardware: 14M

Software: 100M

Top 5 Software:

  1. New Horizon - 8M
  2. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 6M
  3. Ring Fit Adventure - 5.5M
  4. Super Mario 3D All-Stars - 5.25M
  5. Age of Calamity - 5M

Bonus: Digital revenue is up over 150% due to Pokemon Sword / Shield and huge holiday sales

*all figures and predictions are shipped + digital

Your hardware sold prediction seems too high, based off of recent data from the November NPD and Famitsu Switch sales in the U.S and Japan are slightly lower than 2019 as Nintendo is struggling with stock this holiday. While October was way up YoY, November and December are the biggest months and based off of the data it seems like the Switch sales numbers will be very similiar to 2019s with close to 11M sold being the most likely.