I had originally predicted First Half of '24, now I gotta bump it forward to Second Half of '23.
Not so much because of the Switch, but the PS4. The Switch will continue to sell like crack in these next 3-4 years and blow away every other console in its path during that span. Meanwhile, the PS4 is dropping at a far more rapid rate than I, or anyone, anticipated. The fact Sony discontinuing production in Japan almost entirely is a very telling sign. Now you may say that it's just Japan, where the PlayStation brand as a whole has been steadily declining. But it's not just Japan, it's everywhere else. The week before Christmas in 2019, the PS4 sold ~699k units; 2020? ~199k. As for the entire year? In 2019, it sold nearly 14.3 million units for the year; 2020? Even with the benefit of a 53rd week? It won't even reach 9 million.
Moving forward, Sony is going all in with the PS5 and doing everything they can to produce enough units to meet demand. And initial demand for the PS5 is going to be through the roof. If they are able to supply enough, it should be able to sell notably more than the PS4 did in its first 2 years on the market. But that is going to come at the expense of the PS4, whose decline is now going to be accelerated. Before, I thought it might just leg it out to 125 million. Now, I'm not so sure if it'll even reach 120 million. As time goes on, the bar is being set lower and lower for the Switch to pass the PS4. I say now that it'll pass it in the Second Half of '23, but I would not be surprised in the slightest if it did it much sooner.
Hi @PAOerfulone Great analysis as always, personally I just selected second half of 2022, obviously I am making my selection with a lot more data than everyone before, so it is not very impressive.
I think 2021 should end above 100M for the Switch, I don't think the PS4 will be able to reach 120M, So this makes me think that in order to pass the PS4, it would need to sell around 20M in 2022, something that has a slight but probable chance. DS sold much more than that, but DS is a monster.