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noshten on 23 December 2020
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curl-6 said:
noshten said:

Sakuna will surpass 100K physical this year, game is continuing to do extremely well for it's scope and it can end up with over 200K physical sales if momentum continues in 2021. 

Imagine if they'd actually provided adequate supply of Sakuna on Switch instead of it being sold out for weeks.

Marvelous at least was able to provide a second shipment, for a much smaller publisher they are much faster to react than Square - who basically limited how much Octopath & Trials of Mana could sell on the Switch. 

Overall it was a game that prior to launching, few could have expected it might become one of their top selling games. Yet with digital it's likely to finish with more sales than Harvest Moon: Island of Happiness which sold 304K on the DS.

But it's a sign of things to come for them, Marvelous is the publisher that seems to be poised for the biggest growth in the next couple of years. In the past they've been niche in Japan with games rarely surpassing 200K in recent years. So Sakuna is pretty huge success for them already - as the game is also doing extremely well in South Korea(probably Taiwan as well). 

This year should easily match last year's performance due to sales of Sakuna, Rune Factory 4 Special & Friends of Mineral Town. 

Marvelous 2020 Famitsu:

  1. Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin (NSW/PS4) - 112.937*
  2. Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town (NSW) - 28.281*
  3. Kandagawa Jet Girls (PS4) - 7.749

TOTAL: 148.967*

Marvelous 2019 Top 100:

  1. Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town (NSW) - 118.082
  2. Rune Factory 4 Special (NSW) - 62.412
  3. Daemon x Machina (NSW) - 49.099

TOTAL: 229.593

Marvelous 2018 Top 100:

  1. Fate/Extella: The Umbral Star Link (PS4/PSV) - 172.788

TOTAL: 172.788

Marvelous 2017 Top 100:

  1. Senran Kagura: Peach Beach Splash (PS4) - 64.771

TOTAL: 64.771

Marvelous 2016 Top 100:

  1. Story of Seasons: Trio of Towns (3DS) - 196.088
  2. Kan Colle Kai (PSV) - 190.568
  3. Fate/Extella: The Umbral Star (PSV/PS4) - 186.785

TOTAL: 573.441

Marvelous 2015 Top 100:

  1. Return to PoPoLoCrois (3DS) - 74.910
  2. Senran Kagura: Estival Versus (PSV) - 71.548

TOTAL: 146.458

Marvelous 2014 Top 100:

  1. Harvest Moon: Linking The New World - 243.000

TOTAL: 243.000

Overall Marvelous has it's biggest franchises launching next year and they've also find success with some of their legacy content. By the end of 2021, I expect their best selling games of all time to be entirely Switch games. It's a bit unfortunate how Harvest Moon name is owned by another company that is trying to leech off Story of Seasons, the series was titled Harvest Moon between 1996 and 2013. Also I think they will blow 2016 which is their most succesful year since the PS4 launch out of the water as Olive Town alone might do more than the Top 3 Games that year. 

Top 10 Marvelous All Time:

  1. Harvest Moon: Island of Happiness (DS) - 304.660
  2. Harvest Moon: A New Beginning (3DS) - 264.042
  3. Harvest Moon: Linking the New World (3DS) - 259.111
  4. Harvest Moon: Twin Villages (3DS) - 212.870
  5. Story of Seasons: Trio of Towns (3DS) - 196.088
  6. Rune Factory 4 (3DS) - 183.445
  7. Senran Kagura Shinovi Versus (PSV) - 158.270
  8. Harvest Moon: Shining Sun and Friends (DS) - 158.270
  9. Fate/Extra (PSP) - 147.911
  10. Fate/Extra CCC (PSP) - 147.911
  11. Story of Seasons: Friends of Mineral Town (NSW) - 146.363

As we can see Friends of Mineral Town is likely already very close to being a Top 5 of all time game for Marvelous. As, I anticipate it surpassed 200K this year outside the Famitsu Top 30 due to the popularity of New Horizon.

Now Olive Town and Rune Factory 5 are definitely poised to become franchise records if their WoM is good, while Sakuna with digital should also overtake Island of Happiness. 

I really think that Marvelous YoY growth in 2021 will be huge and they will surpass 1 million physical software in Japan. Xseed is teasing two more games for 2021: